Historical Upset Trends Draw Bettors to Lower Seeds in 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
The 2025 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament has seen increased wagering volume following the expansion of legal sports betting to 38 states plus Washington, D.C., since the 2018 Supreme Court decision overturning PASPA.[1]
The tournament features 68 teams, including four play-in games, culminating in 67 total contests watched by millions. Legal handle reached $3.61 billion in 2024, second only to the NFL's Super Bowl.[1][2]
Historical first-round results offer value for underdog bettors. No. 11 seeds hold a 38-40 record against No. 6 seeds since 1985, a near-.500 winning percentage.[3][4]
No. 12 seeds are 14-54 against No. 5 seeds over the same period (.206 winning percentage), though recent tournaments show elevated upset rates, including two victories in 2024.[3][4]
In 8-vs.-9 matchups, No. 9 seeds lead 21-19 since 1985. No. 10 seeds are 18-48 against No. 7 seeds (.273).[3][4]
DraftKings oddsmaker Johnny Avello noted shrinking spreads for some lower seeds due to public betting on upsets. "That's where you take shots and that's where, you know, the upsets have occurred," Avello said.[5]
The second round continued on March 23, 2025, including New Mexico against Michigan State at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio.
Sources
- American Gaming Association
Article: "Americans to Bet $3.6B on March Madness, Up 32 Percent Year-Over-Year"
Publication date: March 19, 2024
https://www.americangaming.org/press-release/americans-project-to-bet-3-6b-on-march-madness-up-32-percent-y-o-y/ - NCAA.com
Article: "2025 NCAA March Madness Men's Basketball Tournament"
Accessed: March 2025
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness/ - NCAA.com
Article: "Every No. 11 seed first-round victory in the Men's NCAA tournament"
Publication date: March 21, 2024
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2024-03-21/every-no-11-seed-first-round-victory-mens-ncaa-tournament - ESPN
Article: "NCAA tournament upsets: A look back at biggest March Madness shocks"
Publication date: March 25, 2024
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/39726872/ncaa-tournament-bracket-upsets-records-all-time-records - Fox News
Article: "March Madness betting trends: Odds shift on lower seeds"
Publication date: March 2025 (approx. based on draft)
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/march-madness-brackets-gambling-wagers